Post by donatello2424 on Jan 29, 2009 21:23:59 GMT -5
Washington D.C., Jan. 29 -- With the first season of the UOSLR underway, I decided to write this article. No it isn’t about player rankings, or power rankings, or even how great Dream is, but is about something I have seen so far. First rounders don’t seem to have much value. It is a bit of a shock. Picks usually carry a lot of value, however ever since the creation draft this has not been the case. Why? No idea. A precedent must have been sent. A deal that caused this huge ripple affect to occur throughout the league.
The Hawks and the Hornets made the first deal in the league. A simple one where a team got a first round pick and gave up a second. But wait, there is another piece in the deal. A first? Oh my. Granted it wasn’t horrible, but it started a trend.
I believe this next deal started a trend that led to the downfall of the value of first round picks: The Charlotte/Vancouver deal. Why? Because Vancouver did move up in the second by ten spots (taking the lowest pick they are getting back). However, the real kicker is the fact that a high second round pick was worth a fifth rounder and three firsts. This set a precedent about the value of firsts.
Are these three worth not having a pick until 1999?
I know people remember looking in blocks for 3rds and such, and seeing the asking price was atleast three firsts. Finally the trading reached a wall where teams were not willing to give up firsts for late picks (or as many as before). Once that wall was reached, people were not willing to give up their fourth or fifth round creation draft pick for a real first rounder and an eight round pick.
The value of firsts can also be seen in the recent trading. The Hawks recently gave up two future picks for Scott Skiles and Mark Acres. Skiles values was two firsts? Shouldn’t have been much of a surprise due to the value, but I think this set the more recent precedent. To get minor upgrades, it is going to cost…picks that is. I think that is also a reason why trading has slowed down. Many teams just have one star player. To add another you would likely have to give up ten firsts at the rate the value is going. Most people are just content keeping their playoff team with their one star and hoping to add a sleeper in the draft or a steal in free agency.
I believe that the real test of the value will be in the draft files. With 3 firsts costing a solid but not spectacular player, will it be worth it with the talent coming from the drafts? Will the players be better than the players they were traded for by a large margin as the talent level overall increases or will the players from the draft follow the mold of the creation file and not have many studs and thus confirming the high value of the picks. However, I feel this will not be the case. I believe that the overall talent level will increase as we get more recent players into the league. When this is the case trading away multiple picks will look foolish. Why trade away multiple picks when you can just draft a player around the same level with your pick? Only time will tell when it comes to these early trades.
Will this event come to bite some teams on the rear?
